Situational play

It’s generally accepted you double down on 11. Especially for those who aren’t counting cards, almost any strategy card you bring into the casino across the world will tell you to double down on 11. But like in all games, blackjack can sometimes be a beast of gut feelings, and if you get presented with an unusual situation, it’s always good to have a plan and, perhaps, be able to reassess your strategy on the fly.

Here’s what I’m getting at. Eight-deck game. Dealer hits on soft 17, no surrender, all other rules standard. The strategy chart says to double 11 all the way through. But should you? What if you’re facing a dealer Ace? Sorry beginners, but the best way to answer this question is to say “it depends on the true count.” If you don’t know what that is, you’re probably going to follow the card and double down anyway, so don’t worry too much about it.

Personally, I don’t care what the charts say, I’ve always hesitated to make a power money move against a dealer’s Ace. I was taught from a young age to assume there’s a 10 hidden underneath the bullet. Now, you’d know if the dealer had blackjack before you even had the option of doubling down, but the point is valid. I’m no saying smart strategy is to assume the worst, this is the furthest thing from what I want to get across. And, I wouldn’t recommend taking insurance or anything, but you have to play cautiously here. Yes, the odds are right to double down, and yes, it’s a nice return if you win, but at some point you’re going to get consistently beaten if you blindly follow the strategy chart every time.

In case you were wondering, the chart also says to double your 9 against a dealer’s 3 through 6, and double your 10 against a dealer’s 2 though 9. Those, of course, statistically make sense, but depending on the true count, I’m not sure I’d be doubling a 10 against a dealer’s 9. Basic strategy is a great starting point, but you have to be able to branch out from there.

I’m sure plenty of you and other blackjack players have instinctively reached for the chips to double an 11, even against an Ace, only to see a middle card saddle itself up with your hand while the dealer flips over an eight or nine. And, a double down also can drastically alter your betting strategy, depending on how you’re structuring your bets and whether progressive betting is part of your plan.

The approximate casino advantage under this game is 0.7%.