Does basic strategy count on counters?

Basic strategy in blackjack. You hear so much about it as a new player or a stable veteran. Gotta go with basic strategy, gotta follow basic strategy. As if you didn’t already know that. But don’t worry if you forget…there’s always someone at the tables to remind you. But does basic strategy take into account the middle of a shoe? Does it adjust to 100 cards already burned through a hand? And does following basic strategy really improve your chances of winning?

Let’s answer that last question first. No. But then why does basic strategy exist? Why does everyone insist you use it? Basic strategy takes you down the best statistical path of the blackjack universe, but all it’s really doing is helping you lose your money more slowly. That’s right, because blackjack is a negative expectation game for the vast majority of straight players. If you don’t count, and follow strategy and strategy alone, you’ll just have your wound closed up enough to bleed out a little slower. In the long run, the odds get you. In the short run, maybe following basic strategy works with the deal and puts you up a good amount. Of course, the casino knows most players – especially newer ones – don’t know when to walk away. Hell, they’re probably not even thinking about it.

As for the other question I posed, basic strategy actually does take into account spent cards. But it concludes the player is not following them. Meaning basic strategy and counting cards are exclusive from one another. The casinos aren’t in the business of helping you count cards, so you’ll never see a real relationship exposed or advertised if you’re holding tight to basic strategy. In fact, if you know how to count cards, you’ll get a very clear picture of when it is exactly you’re supposed to deviate from basic strategy. When you stray, you’re optimizing your chances, and thus it’s generally referred to as “optimal strategy.”

When does this come into play? It would take 10 more articles to really get into it, but there are obvious borderline hands like a 16 vs. a dealer’s 10, or a 12 vs. a dealer’s 4, etc… If you’ve been counting, it can help you reach a different decision than if you were just following basic strategy.

Basic strategy is great for what it offers, and for many beginners, it’s an essential way to learn the game. But it’s certainly not a ticket to a winning day, even if the cards do what they’re supposed to.